The UK's domestic intelligence agency as well as counter-terror officers will function under a heightened state of alert over the next few weeks, indicating concern that the Manchester synagogue attack could be followed by further incidents during a timeframe that encompasses the second anniversary of the 7 October attack by Hamas against Israel.
Enhanced Security Measures at Synagogues
Policing around synagogues nationwide is to be strengthened. The London mayor, Sadiq Khan, promised “highly visible” officer deployments in and outside synagogues to reassure communities and to deter additional dangers, as law enforcement elsewhere in the UK issued comparable assurances.
Preliminary Investigations and Motivation
Investigations into the attack remain at an early stage, however the central theory is that the assailant, who was fatally shot by police, had an Islamist motivation. No details have emerged publicly available about whether he was potentially radicalised by the ongoing military operations in Gaza and Palestinian fatalities within the Gaza Strip.
Specifics of the Attack
The assault, occurring around 9:30 in the morning at the Heaton Park synagogue in Crumpsall Manchester, which killed two and seriously injured four others, was not sophisticated.
Authorities feared the attacker was carrying an explosive device and appeared to have a vest and objects attached to his waist, but the devices proved to be inert. Victims at the place of worship, who were observing the final day of the Day of Atonement, were stabbed with a knife.
Key Line of Investigation
A key line of inquiry is whether the attacker acted alone, though there is not thought to be any ongoing threat to the public.
Plots directed from overseas, previously common in the time of al-Qaeda, have become rare and individuals are more usually extremised by following the news or accessing content online.
Altered Security Landscape
Authorities also acknowledged that the two-year conflict between Israel and Gaza has changed the threat environment.
Two years ago, the head of MI5 stated: “It is evident that there is the possibility that profound events in the region will either generate more volume of UK threat, and/or alter the nature in terms of the focus of attacks, in terms of how people are taking inspiration.”
International Context
In August, Australia’s prime minister announced that Iran had directed at least a pair of assaults against his nation's Jewish population, after an probe by the Australian Security and Intelligence Organisation, which said it had “credible intelligence” to support that conclusion.
The incidents had been ordered by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, utilizing compensated agents operating within Australia, and the disclosures prompted the Albanese government to remove Iran's diplomatic representative to Canberra from Australia.
For now, there is nothing publicly known to indicate any foreign government involvement or direction in the attack in Manchester.
Terror Threat Level
A review of the overall terror threat level by the JTAC, which is housed inside MI5, is normal following a major incident. It has been maintained at the substantial level, the third of five levels, since early 2022 and currently is not expected to be raised. Nonetheless, this will be kept under close review.
A conclusive determination will depend heavily on the proof that emerges in the coming days from a examination of the attacker’s mobile device and additional electronics, his internet activity and his property.
Historical Context
The most recent wave of significant extremist assaults was in the warmer months of 2017, beginning with an attack on Westminster Bridge in March and succeeded by additional attacks at a concert venue and London Bridge in late spring and early summer respectively.
Ideologically similar attacks are not the sole worry for police and spy agencies. A fortnight after the London Bridge attack, a vehicle was driven into a Islamic center at a north London location, in a premeditated act of violence after a period of heightened tension.
Persistent Danger
Though the focus of the recent years has been on threats from nations to the UK – especially from the Russian Federation since the start of its large-scale military incursion of the Ukraine, but also Iran and China - MI5 has been explicit that the danger posed by extremism remains.
Last year, in his last annual review, McCallum said the intelligence agency and the law enforcement had thwarted “43 advanced terrorist plans” since the Westminster incident in March 2017. Three quarters were schemes by Islamist extremists, he noted.
